H1-2014 TGISVP, Portfolio Performance

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Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, portfolio performance, Smart Alpha Portfolio, Smart Beta Portfolio, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project

Now, let’s take a look at H1-2014 performance for The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. The valuation phase (covering 80 companies) ran from Feb to May, so the mid-point of these posts (March-30th) is the most appropriate start date for benchmarking purposes. Since then, the ISEQ is down 5.8% (as of end-June), so any TGISVP out-performance will be doubly welcome…

Actually, the ISEQ’s recent decline has been even more pronounced – since its end-Feb high, the index is down 9.5%. [And we have a similar pattern with the UK’s AIM All-Share, down a whopping 12.7% since its March high. Clearly, the major indices have been performing very differently…I expect to revisit this divergence in my next post]. Despite that, it’s worth highlighting the ISEQ still managed a 3.5% gain for the entire first half – a nice reminder the Irish market seems to enjoy disproportionate first quarter gains nearly every single year.

OK, before looking at overall performance, let’s have some fun – who were the individual winners & losers to date?! [Remember, for each stock, we’re only looking at gains/losses since its TGISVP evaluation date (i.e. Feb-May), so these tables don’t necessarily reflect full H1 performance…though I’m sure there’s plenty of overlap!]. Here’s the Sewer Shit:

This includes most of the usual suspects – junior resource stocks on their inevitable march to zero…

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TGISVP – 2013 Portfolio Performance

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Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Great Western Mining Corp, Independent News & Media, Irish shares, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Karelian Diamond Resources, Papua Mining, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Prime Active Capital, Smart Alpha Portfolio, Smart Beta Portfolio, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, US Oil & Gas

OK, a second year of The Great Irish Share Valuation Project is now complete – for reference, here’s my mid-year review, now it’s time for the real post-mortem!  Let’s take care of a little housekeeping first:

– Between Jan & May last year, I published individual reviews/valuations for 73 different Irish companies, and kept a file recording each share price (at time of evaluation) & price target to properly assess performance.

– Post mid-year, in Aug-Sep 2013, I published (& recorded) some additional reviews/valuations for 3 new Irish IPOs:  Green REIT (GRN:ID), Keywords Studios (KWS:LN), and Ardmore Shipping (ASC:US).

– Since mid-year, I’ve made no other changes to my TGISVP file, except: i) Donegal Creameries (DCP:ID) changed its name to Donegal Investment Group (DCP:ID), while United Drug (UDG:LN) became UDG Healthcare (UDG:LN), ii) Kedco (KED:LN) changed its name to REACT Energy (REAC:LN), and also consolidated its shares on a 1-for-50 basis, iii) Grafton Group (GFTU:LN) migrated to a London-only listing, iv) Elan Corp (ELN:US) was acquired by Perrigo Co (PRGO:US), and finally v) TVC Holdings (TVCH:ID) paid its shareholders a EUR 0.495 special dividend.

– Since the (major) review/valuation phase was spread over 4 1/2 mths, my benchmark (the ISEQ) needs to be adjusted accordingly. I’m going to reference the mid-point (in terms of companies valued) of this phase – i.e. Feb-25th – as the most appropriate start date for the index.

TGISVP – H1-2013 Performance

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alpha, Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Clontarf Energy, Continental Farmers Group, DCC, Elan Corp, Fastnet Oil & Gas, Glanbia, Greencore Group, Irish shares, Irish value investing, ISEQ, junior resource stocks, muppets, Petroceltic International, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, Smart Alpha Portfolio, Smart Beta Portfolio, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, US Oil & Gas

Time to wrap up the mid-year review(s) – let’s finish with The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. To recap:

– A total of 73 Irish companies are included this year (same as last year – but US Oil & Gas (USOP:G4) & Fastnet Oil & Gas (FAST:LN) were subsequently listed, so I added them later in the year, increasing the 2012 total to 75).

– Each company’s been individually reviewed & valued, some time between Jan & May, and I’ve kept a record of all share prices (at time of evaluation) & price targets to properly assess performance.

– I’ve made no subsequent changes to the file, except: i) to adjust for DCC (DCC:LN) migrating to a London-only listing & for Petroceltic International (PCI:LN) consolidating its shares 1 for 25, and ii) Continental Farmers Group (CFGP:LN) will continue to be included at its GBP 36p takeover price (the Saudi bail-out came in the nick of time, just before the cash ran dry!).

– Since my TGISVP review/valuation phase was spread over 4 1/2 mths, we need to adjust our benchmark (the ISEQ) accordingly. Like last year, I’ll take the mid-point (in terms of companies valued) of this phase – i.e. Feb-25th – as the most appropriate start date for the index.

I’m bemused to see I’ve apparently become more bearish this year! Last year, I was bullish on 48% of all stocks, while this year that’s now dropped to 40%. But consider the unique nature of TGISVP, which includes an extraordinary selection of junior resource stocks, complete with assorted incompetents & cowboys! Not surprisingly, I’m bearish on pretty much all these rubbish stocks – so stripping ’em out, it’s fair to say I remain bullish on Irish stocks. 🙂 OK, perhaps a little less so today, but with the ISEQ up +17.1% in 2012 & another +16.7% this year, that’s no great shocker..!

TGISVP – 2012 Portfolio Performance

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Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Irish shares, ISEQ, portfolio performance, Smart Alpha Portfolio, Smart Beta Portfolio, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project

I launched The Great Irish Share Valuation Project in Jan-2012 with all due confidence & bravado. [The ultimate irony in business & government is that people quickly learn (insane) confidence is the best way to get ahead, while ignoring it can also lead to the most spectacular of downfalls!]. It was actually a rather daunting proposition at the time…

Not necessarily because of the number of stocks involved – Ireland’s one of the few developed markets where it’s entirely possible to roll up your sleeves & get to know each stock pretty well. [I count 70 stocks in my latest file]. That may or may not float your boat, but I think it’s another good reason to put the Irish market on your to-do list this year. Picking out 2 or 3 safe & cheap stocks is a real luxury – it’s infinitely more challenging to tag every single stock with a bull or bear call (let alone a price target!), and to then up the stakes with an aggressive weighting on each stock holding.

TGISVP – Hot? Not?!

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Alpha Portfolio, Barron's, Beta Portfolio, binary outcomes, Fastnet Oil & Gas, FBD Holdings, garbage stocks, intrinsic value, junior resource stocks, Leverage, Margin of Safety, Petroneft Resources, portfolio allocation, portfolio performance, risk management, Smart Alpha Portfolio, Smart Beta Portfolio, stock screener, TGISVP, Total Produce, Trinity Biotech, US Oil & Gas, value investing

In my last post, I was delighted to see the TGISVP Alpha & Beta Portfolios continue to expand their level of out-performance vs. their ISEQ benchmark. Particularly pleasing was the sight of my favourite, the Smart Alpha portfolio, far outpacing the others with a 21.1% YTD absolute return. But we’re still only 9 months into the experiment, so clearly we need a far longer horizon to confirm if this performance edge is sustainable.

It also makes me wonder if there’s a lesson to be learned here..? No, not whether value investing out-performs in the long run – I’m fully convinced of that already! [And if you’re not, please please read some of the numerous papers published on the topic]. But whether a mechanical approach is perhaps better?

Ha! No, I’m certainly not planning on becoming a stock screening convert..! But I wonder: Even if you’re a v competent & disciplined value analyst, even if you’ve conquered much of the fear & greed involved in investing, perhaps that demon mind still trips you up at that v last hurdle, or two..? When you’ve a nice stack of portfolio candidates lined up, why do you then take a shine to some & not to others? Why does one special stock really get your heart racing, far out of proportion to its obvious prospects? Why do you end up triple invested in one stock vs. another, when they both lined up pretty much even-stevens in terms of risk/reward?

TGISVP, Q3 ’12 YTD Performance (II)

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alpha, Alpha Portfolio, beta, Beta Portfolio, Fastnet Oil & Gas, intrinsic value, Ireland, Irish shares, Irish Stock Exchange, Irish value investing, ISEQ, Smart Alpha Portfolio, Smart Beta Portfolio, TGISVP, The Great Irish Share Valuation Project, US Oil & Gas, value investing

Continued from here. Sorry for that tease earlier this week, I promise we’ll actually get to YTD performance of the TGISVP Portfolios in this post..! My H1 post is good background – particularly note the following:

– Q3 2012 YTD performance for each stock is TGISVP specific – i.e., measured from the specific (Q1) date I set a target price for each stock – because this was/is intended to be a real-time exercise in portfolio construction & management

– Two exceptions: Fastnet Oil & Gas (FAST:LN) & US Oil & Gas (USOP) were added in Sep. Based on their significant Downside Potential rankings, both are now included as EUR (3) shorts in the Alpha Portfolios (see here for more detail on overall portfolio construction)

– ISEQ YTD performance is measured from Feb-6th**. I noted: ‘I think the fairest, and most comparable, benchmark to use is the ISEQ’s performance since Feb-6th. The valuation stage of the Project was stretched out over Jan-March, but on that date I reached the half-way point, so this is a good average starting point for a benchmark comparison. It’s not perfect, but I think it’s the simplest and most obvious solution.‘

TGISVP, Q3 2012 YTD Performance (I)

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Aer Lingus, Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Cove Energy, CPL Resources, Datalex, Fastnet Oil & Gas, FBD Holdings, garbage stocks, junior resource stocks, performance appraisal, Petroneft Resources, portfolio performance, Prime Active Capital, Providence Resources, Siteserv, TGISVP, US Oil & Gas, Worldspreads

Now Q3 2012 is over, it’s time to revisit The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. Here’s my H1 2012 performance post, for reference.

First, note there’s been 1 de-listing – we already had the heads-up on it last quarter: Cove Energy (COV:LN) was taken out for GBP 240p in cash per share by PTTEP (PTTEP:TB). A marvelous result for most shareholders, except for a few over-enthusiastic latecomers that bid the shares up to GBP 270p+ in the dying days of a Royal Dutch Shell (RDSB:LN) vs. PTTEP tussle. [I’ll continue to include Cove – at its final GBP 240p value – for performance purposes for the rest of the year].

Note: Q3 2012 YTD performance for each stock is TGISVP specific – that is, performance is measured from the specific date (in Q1) I set a target price for each stock. [Apologies if you’d prefer to see actual YTD performance for all stocks – but I suspect there’d be a high degree of overlap in the winners & losers, anyway].

TGISVP – H1 2012 Performance – Firing On all Cylinders!

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Aer Lingus, AGI Therapeutics, Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Botswana Diamonds, Cove Energy, Datalex, ISEQ, Karelian Diamond Resources, market-neutral, natural resource stocks, Ovoca Gold, Petroneft Resources, portfolio performance, Prime Active Capital, Providence Resources, Readymix, Risk Arbitrage, Siteser, Smart Alpha Portfolio, Smart Beta Portfolio, TGISVP, Worldspreads

Now H1 2012 is over, it’s time to revisit The Great Irish Share Valuation Project. Here’s my Q1 2012 performance post – well worth revisiting as background, but I’ll recap some important points below.

Let’s first look at individual stocks. I count 4 de-listings (which I’ll continue to include for performance purposes, at their final values): AGI Therapeutics (AGI:ID/LN) was a profitable Event-Driven investment for me, and inspiration for some detailed Risk Arb. posts. Siteserv (SSV:ID/LN) & Worldspreads (WSPR:LN/ID) both exited amid scandal – possibly criminal in the case of the latter, with alleged charges now including share price manipulation, in addition to accounting/actual fraud. Finally, Readymix (RYX:ID) succumbed to a Cemex (CX:US) bid, illustrating that the right investment thesis (an eventual takeout by the controlling shareholder) is not enough. Timing & the price you pay are equally important – despite the bid premium, RYX’s multi-year operational & price decline meant v few long term shareholders made any profit. Looking ahead, Cove Energy (COV:LN) seems set to follow the de-listers, but promises to provide some final drama!

7.7% Q1 2012 Outperformance! – TGISVP XI

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AGI Therapeutics, Alpha Portfolio, Beta Portfolio, Conroy Gold, hedge funds, ISEQ, junior resource stocks, market-neutral, portfolio performance, Prime Active Capital, Siteserv, Smart Alpha Portfolio, Smart Beta Portfolio, TGISVP, Worldspreads

It’s early days yet but, rather serendipitously, I managed to complete the valuation stage of The Great Irish Share Valuation Project by quarter-end. That deserves a performance review, I guess..?!

Let’s first take a look at individual stock performance. btw I mentioned I’ve completed 72 Irish stock valuations, but I’ll continue to include AGI Therapeutics (which was taken over) as a 73rd stock for performance purposes. And remember, Gainers/Losers are based on quarter-end prices vs. the original market prices I noted (as I worked my way through each stock’s valuation in Jan-March). Therefore, this is a TGISVP specific performance snapshot, I’m not attempting a full Q1 stock performance ranking here (though I’d expect they would be pretty similar):